BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



          SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS
                             Senator Ricardo Lara, Chair
                            2015 - 2016  Regular  Session

          AB 1346 (Gray) - Office of Emergency Services:  State Emergency  
          Plan and statewide earthquake early warning system
          
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          |Version: May 31, 2016           |Policy Vote: G.O. 12 - 0        |
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          |Urgency: Yes                    |Mandate: No                     |
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          |Hearing Date: August 1, 2016    |Consultant: Mark McKenzie       |
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          This bill meets the criteria for referral to the Suspense File.



          Bill  
          Summary:  AB 1346, an urgency measure, would delete funding  
          restrictions and conditions that must be met before the Office  
          of Emergency Services (OES) can take actions to establish a  
          statewide earthquake early warning system (EEWS), including an  
          existing prohibition against using the General Fund for that  
          purpose, as well as a deadline to identify funds by a July 1,  
          2016 sunset date.  The bill would also require OES to update the  
          State Emergency Plan on or before January 1, 2018 and every five  
          years thereafter, as specified.


          Fiscal  
          Impact:  
           Initial estimated capital costs of approximately $28 million  
            (General Fund) to establish the EEWS, according to a recent  
            EEWS Project Implementation Framework report (see staff  
            comments).  Staff notes that the 2016-17 Budget includes a  







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            one-time General Fund appropriation of $6.875 million for  
            capital funding for EEWS purposes. 

           Ongoing annual administrative costs of approximately $17  
            million (General Fund) beginning in 2017-18, according to the  
            Project Implementation Framework report (see staff comments).   
            Staff notes that the 2016-17 Budget includes a one-time  
            General Fund appropriation of $3.125 million for state  
            operations related to the development of the EEWS:  $734,000  
            for 4 PY of staff at OES, $150,000 for a financial strategy  
            contract, and $2.241 million for public education and  
            training.

           OES indicates that it would incur minor and absorbable costs  
            to update the State Emergency Plan (SEP) by January 1, 2018  
            because they currently make frequent updates pursuant to  
            federal requirements.


          Background:  California is the second most seismically active state in the  
          country, behind Alaska. The Uniform California Earthquake  
          Rupture Forecast (UCERF) forecasts a 99.7% chance of a magnitude  
          6.7 or larger earthquake in the state during the next 30 years.  
          Some countries that experience high seismic activity have  
          developed early earthquake warning (EEW) systems.  Currently,  
          Japan is the only country with a nationwide system, while  
          Turkey, Mexico, Taiwan, and others have implemented local  
          systems.  Generally, these detection systems are based upon the  
          finding that the first waves emanating from the epicenter of the  
          earthquake, primary waves (P-waves), cause less damage but  
          travel faster than the slower and damage-causing secondary waves  
          (S-waves).  This "single-station" approach can be used in  
          conjunction with a "network approach" that combines signals from  
          a regional seismic network of sensors that is capable of  
          characterizing large and complex earthquakes as they evolve.   
          EEW systems harness the sensor signals and provide a warning to  
          the public and active users of the system before a shaking  
          event.  Depending on the distance from the epicenter, these  
          systems can provide advanced warning time ranging from seconds  
          to minutes, outside a 20-mile "blind zone" near an epicenter.   
          This would allow for emergency shutdowns of critical  
          infrastructure, such as trains, utilities, and industrial  
          processes, and allow the general public to take protective  
          action.








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          The California Geological Survey (CGS), within the Department of  
          Conservation, currently operates over 5,000 seismic instruments  
          that monitor ground movement around the state through the Strong  
          Motion Instrumentation Program (SMIP).  This is the largest  
          portion of the broader California Integrated Seismic Network  
          (CISN), which is comprised of 1,900 monitoring sites operated in  
          partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey, Caltech, and the UC  
          Berkeley Seismological Lab.  Information from these instruments  
          is used for research and planning purposes, and to produce  
          "Shakemaps," which inform emergency responders where the worst  
          shaking occurred within minutes of an earthquake.  The U.S.  
          Geological Survey is currently operating a small warning system  
          pilot program based on this instrumentation network, and  
          additional federal and foundation grants have been awarded to  
          support the development of a local earthquake early warning  
          system for the Los Angeles and Long Beach areas.


          Existing inoperative law requires OES, in collaboration with  
          specified entities, to develop a comprehensive statewide EEWS  
          that includes specified features through a public-private  
          partnership.  This provision is only operative if OES identified  
          funding for the system from non-General Fund sources, including  
          federal funds, revenue bonds, local funds, and private funds, by  
          July 1, 2016.  If the funding is not identified by that date,  
          the requirement to establish an EEWS is repealed.




          Proposed Law:  
            AB 1346, an urgency measure, would delete restrictions and  
          conditions for funding and establishing an EEWS, and require OES  
          to update the SEP every five years.  Specifically, this bill  
          would:
           Delete provisions that prohibit OES from identifying the  
            General Fund as a funding source for the purpose of  
            establishing the EEWS.
           Delete provisions that limit EEWS funding to federal funds,  
            revenue bond funds, local funds, and private funds.
           Delete provisions indicating that the requirement to establish  
            the EEWS is inoperative until OES identifies non-General Fund  
            funding for that purpose








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           Delete provisions that repeal the statute on July 1, 2016 if  
            non-General Fund funding for the EEWS is not identified by  
            that date, and delete a requirement for OES to notify the  
            Secretary of State that funding was not identified by that  
            date.
           Require OES to update the SEP by January 1, 2018 and every  
            five years thereafter, and require the SEP to be consistent  
            with the Safeguarding California Plan, the California Climate  
            Adaptation Planning Guide, and the internet website  
            cal-adapt.org, as specified.




          Related  
          Legislation:  SB 135 (Padilla), Chap. 342/2013, requires OES to  
          establish a statewide EEWS, as specified.  This requirement is  
          only operative after OES identifies non-General Fund funding for  
          the system, and only if it does so by January 1, 2016.
          SB 494 (Hill), Chap. 799/2015, established the California  
          Earthquake Safety Fund to be used for seismic safety and  
          earthquake-related programs, including the EEWS, and extended  
          the OES deadline for identifying non-General funds for the  
          system until July 1, 2016.




          Staff  
          Comments:  Despite the restrictions in the recently repealed law  
          that explicitly state that the requirement to establish an EEWS  
          in consultation with stakeholders is inoperative until OES  
          identifies sufficient funding, OES established a working group  
          in 2013 to formally initiate the EEWS planning process.  The  
          working group released a "California Earthquake Early Warning  
          System, Project Implementation Framework" in April of this year.  
           The Implementation Framework describes how the EEWS could be  
          implemented for public use by building upon the existing CISN  
          and ShakeAlert systems, including a five-year implementation  
          schedule that outlines governance needs, capital and operational  
          needs, and system deployment and public outreach plans.  The  
          Framework calls for expanding the current sensor network by 646  
          EEW-capable seismic stations (from the current 469 stations),  
          improving field telemetry for data communications, constructing  








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          and upgrading central processing and notification centers,  
          establishing public notification paths, raising awareness  
          through public education efforts, and building in incremental  
          performance improvements.  The Project Implementation Framework  
          report also includes a cost estimate that calls for one-time  
          capital expenditures of $22 million for new and upgraded seismic  
          stations, GPS equipment, telemetry, microwave nodes, and other  
          overhead costs, one-time costs of $6 million to develop a public  
          education and outreach program (including social science, public  
          health, and risk communications research), and ongoing personnel  
          and operating costs of $17 million annually.
          Staff notes that the 2016-17 Budget includes a one-time General  
          Fund appropriation of $10 million to support the implementation  
          of the California EEWS.  According to the Budget Change Proposal  
          (BCP) submitted by OES with the Governor's May Revision, $6.875  
          million will be used for capital costs, including seismic  
          stations, GPS equipment, telemetry, and microwave nodes, and  
          $3.125 million will be used for "recurring costs" of $2.241  
          million for public education and training, $150,000 for a  
          financial strategy, and $734,000 for 4 permanent PY of OES  
          staffing (even though the funding is one-time).  The BCP cited  
          the statutory requirement for OES to establish the EEWS as  
          justification for the funding, but failed to note the following:  
           (1) that OES is prohibited from identifying the General Fund as  
          a funding source for purposes of establishing the EEWS; (2) that  
          the requirement to establish the EEWS is inoperative until OES  
          identifies sufficient non-General Fund resources for that  
          purpose; and (3) that the statutory requirement was set to  
          expire before the budget year began.


          Staff notes that the funding restrictions (limiting the EEWS  
          funding sources to federal funds, revenue bond funds, local  
          funds, and private funds), as well as the deadline to identify  
          funds (both conditions that this bill seeks to delete), were  
          amended into SB 135 by this Committee when it was released from  
          the Suspense File and approved on May 23, 2013.




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