BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



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          Date of Hearing:  July 7, 2003

                    ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON UTILITIES AND COMMERCE
                                 Sarah Reyes, Chair
                      SB 888 (Dunn) - As Amended:  July 1, 2003

           SENATE VOTE  :  21-16
           
          SUBJECT  :  Public utilities:  electrical restructuring.

           SUMMARY  :  Repeals provisions relating to implementing a market  
          based electric industry structure under AB 1890 (Brulte),  
          Chapter 854, Statutes of 1996, including modifying the existing  
          definitions that govern regulatory policy for investor owned  
          utilities.  Specifically,  this bill  :  Repeals the following  
          provisions relating to implementing a market based electric  
          industry structure under AB 1890:

          1)Repeals the legislative findings and declarations for  
            electricity deregulation under AB 1890.  This bill deletes  
            obsolete language governing the powers and duties of the  
            bankrupt Power Exchange (PX).  Deletes provisions requiring  
            the bylaws governing the Independent System Operator (ISO),  
            the Electricity Oversight Board (EOB) and PX to be consistent  
            with the statutory responsibilities of the Federal Energy  
            Regulatory Commission (FERC).

          2)Deletes obsolete reporting requirements for ISO to the  
            Legislature and EOB.  Repeals legislative findings and intent  
            language governing the ability of PX to perform its duties,  
            including the Legislatures goals for PX.

          3)Deletes the requirements for the California Public Utilities  
            Commission (PUC) to help create ISO and PX, develop a cost  
            recovery mechanism for the state's electrical corporations in  
            a competitive market environment and authorize direct  
            transactions between electrical corporations and end use  
            customers subject to a nonbypassable charge.  This bill  
            deletes a customer's ability to aggregate their electricity  
            loads on a voluntary basis through direct transactions.   
            Furthermore, this bill deletes all forms of customer  
            verification for selecting an alternate energy service  
            provider and other PUC directives toward implementing a market  
            based electric industry structure.








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          4)Deletes provisions in existing law that relates to payment of  
            specified competition transition charges (CTC) that were due  
            by March 2002, including the calculations for determining the  
            value of an investor owned utilities (IOUs) stranded  
            investments and how those costs were to be recouped from  
            ratepayers.  These costs and charges were established under AB  
            1890 to pay for the stranded assets of IOUs that became  
            uneconomic as a result of a competitive market.

          5)Deletes charges that consumers have an obligation to pay under  
            CTC established by 
            AB 1890, including the ability for an IOU to apply to PUC to  
            not collect CTCs for a particular class or category of  
            electrical consumption.

          6)Deletes the ability for PUC to determine cost recovery and  
            valuation of IOU assets for purposes of determining the  
            competition transition charge.  Furthermore, this bill deletes  
            PUC's ability to allocate charges among various classes of  
            customers, rate schedules, and tariff options to ensure that  
            costs are recovered from these classes, rate schedules,  
            contract rates, and tariff options.

          Establishes:
           
          1)That electrical corporations and gas corporations that serve  
            retail customers have an obligation to serve those customers  
            with reliable service at just and reasonable rates.  This  
            obligation to serve includes a duty to furnish and maintain  
            adequate, efficient, just and reasonable service,  
            instrumentalities, equipment, and facilities that are  
            necessary to promote the safety, health, comfort and  
            convenience of customers, employees, and the public while  
            promoting a sustainable environment.

          2)That this obligation to serve definition for electrical  
            corporations and gas corporations include the obligation to  
            plan for and provide sufficient, affordable and reliable  
            resources, which includes utility owned and procured  
            generation resources, renewable generation resources,  
            transmission and distribution resources, and cost effective  
            energy efficiency resources.









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          3)A rate of return for electrical corporations to meet their  
            obligation to serve that includes a reasonable opportunity to  
            fully recover from all customers, in a manner determined by  
            PUC.

          4)Cost recovery language for electrical corporations to recover  
            reasonable costs to operate and maintain those resources,  
            reasonable compensation for employees, a return of and a  
            reasonable return on prudent investments in utility owned  
            generation, transmission, and distribution resources necessary  
            to meet the obligation to serve.

          5)Requires ISO, in consultation with PUC, to adopt and  
            periodically review and update inspection, maintenance,  
            repair, and replacement standards for transmission facilities.  
             PUC shall adopt and review maintenance standards for  
            distributions systems of investor owned electrical utilities  
            and review the standards set by ISO for transmission  
            facilities.

          6)Prohibits ISO from entering into a multi state regional  
            transmission organization unless it is approved by EOB and the  
            Legislature by concurrent resolution.

          7)Requires PUC to develop and submit to the Legislature a  
            proposal for implementing a core/noncore model of retail  
            electric service that permits customer choice in selecting an  
            energy service provider outside of an IOU subject to all costs  
            being fully recoverable for core portfolio customers and IOUs.  
             Energy service providers will also be required to meet the  
            twenty percent renewable energy goal set in the Renewable  
            Portfolio Standards Program (RPSP).  Furthermore, PUC shall  
            limit noncore customers from returning to bundled service.  If  
            service is provided to noncore customers it must be at fully  
            compensatory rates and subject to contract terms that prevent  
            cost shifting.  Under this proposal core customers will also  
            be able to purchase renewable power at cost from an IOU.

          8)Prohibits any new direct access contracts from being  
            authorized until the enactment of the core/noncore proposal by  
            PUC.  Allows for the continuation of existing direct access  
            contracts prior to April 1, 2003.

          9)Establish a Ratepayer Refund Account for each electrical  








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            corporation.  IOUs are to deposit any excessive costs during  
            the energy crisis for wholesale electricity that are recovered  
            in the Ratepayer Refund Account.

          10)Requires PUC to regulate public utility owned generating  
            facilities to ensure that the service provided is  
            environmentally clean, efficient, cost effective to  
            ratepayers, and adequate.  Furthermore, IOUs must make direct  
            investments in or contract with any entity dedicated to serve  
            customers connected to an electrical corporation distribution  
            system or grid consistent with procurement plans approved by  
            PUC.

          11)Requires all metering of customers usage to be performed by  
            the electrical corporation and no customer with an average  
            usage of less than 1,000 kilowatthours per month is required  
            to take service under a time of use rate.

          12)Requires an incentive mechanism to be developed consistent  
            with existing incentive mechanisms for market or PUC  
            authorized benchmarks for power procurement for demand  
            reduction resources and ensures a timely recovery of all costs  
            for demand reduction incurred by IOU.

          13)Requires PUC to establish and oversee a long term,  
            comprehensive integrated resource planning process that  
            results in a balanced, reliable, environmentally responsible  
            portfolio of supply and demand reduction resources consistent  
            with provisions for long term contracts for IOUs and existing  
            air emission and renewable resource goals for generators.

          14)Requires PUC when implementing its procurement plan for IOUs  
            to first acquire all available cost effective energy  
            efficiency resources or demand reduction resources compared to  
            long term resource options.

          15)Specifies that reasonable expenditures by transmission owners  
            that are electrical corporations to plan, design, reconfigure,  
            replace or expand transmission facilities or other cost  
            effective transmission alternatives, including demand side  
            alternatives for the purpose of delivering lower cost power to  
            ratepayers are in the public interest and deemed prudent.

          16)Requires electrical corporations to provide service that is  








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            environmental clean, efficient and cost effective for  
            ratepayers consistent with provisions of the renewable  
            portfolio standard program, IOU long term procurement  
            contracts, air emission standards and the integrated energy  
            policy report.

          17)Requires PUC to approve rates that provide an electrical  
            corporation a reasonable opportunity to recover its reasonable  
            costs of operating, its reasonable investment in, and a  
            reasonable return on its investments on its generation plants.

          18)Adds declaratory language saying that is the intent of the  
            Legislature to reaffirm, without requiring revision,  
            California's doctrine, as reflected in regulatory and judicial  
            decisions, regarding electrical corporation's reasonable  
            opportunity to recover costs and investments.

           EXISTING LAW  :  

          1)Established provisions for restructuring the electric industry  
            in California and provided for the following:

             a)   ISO to manage the transmission grid in IOU service  
               territories, subject to regulation by FERC;

             b)   PX, providing an auction system to determine wholesale  
               electric prices;

             c)   EOB to oversee ISO and PX; 

             d)   Market valuation of IOU owned generation to facilitate  
               divestment and enhance competition in the generation  
               market;

             e)   Direct retail transactions for electricity and  
               registration of Electric Service Providers (ESPs) marketing  
               electricity to retail customers;

             f)   Unbundling of generation, transmission, and distribution  
               services, reflected in separate charges on consumers'  
               electric bills;

             g)   Four year rate freeze for residential and small  
               commercial customers during a transition period ending in  








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               2002;

             h)   CTC to pay amortization costs of stranded utility  
               generation assets;

             i)   Rate reduction bond to finance a 10 percent rate  
               reduction for residential and small commercial customers  
               during the transition period;

             j)   Public goods charge (PGC) to provide for competitively  
               neutral assessment of subsidies for energy efficiency,  
               conservation, and low income programs;

             aa)  Authorization for publicly owned utilities (POUs) to  
               implement retail competition.

          2)Specified the framework, responsibilities and functions of  
            EOB.

          3)Provided for additional consumer protections for ESP  
            customers, through third party verification and other forms of  
            disclosure when switching to another entity than an IOU for  
            electric service.

          4)Replaced the stakeholder governing board of ISO with a five  
            member board appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the  
            Senate.

          5)Prohibited divestment of any IOU retained generation assets  
            until January 1, 2006, eliminated market based valuation of  
            IOU retained generation, and retained cost of service  
            regulation over IOU generation assets.

          6)Required PUC to suspend direct transactions.

          7)Required PUC to develop and enforce generator maintenance and  
            performance standards cooperatively with ISO.

          8)Required IOUs to meet the renewable portfolio standard (RPS)  
            as specified.

           FISCAL EFFECT  :  Unknown.

           COMMENTS  :








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           "Repeal of Electricity Deregulation Act of 2003:"   Most of the  
          provisions of this bill repeal the existing law that establishes  
          the structure of a market based electric industry and the duties  
          and powers of agencies like ISO, EOB and PX to administer and  
          run this new system.  Other provisions being deleted in this  
          bill give guidance to PUC in developing the cost recovery  
          mechanisms and its ancillary functions (i.e., Transition Cost  
          Balancing Account (TCBA) and (CTC)).

          This bill contains language that adds new provisions to an IOU  
          obligation to serve, rate of return and cost recovery, while  
          also deleting specified language in existing law affecting these  
          definitions.  Furthermore, this bill contains language that  
          places a higher priority on the demand side reduction programs  
          compared to long term procurement contracts, including elevating  
          an IOUs environmental responsibilities to the same level as  
          ratepayer responsibilities.

           Environmental provisions:   One of the areas of focus for this  
          bill is to promote and prioritize demand reduction programs,  
          including strengthening references to existing law on RPS and  
          new service standards for electrical corporations to provide  
          environmentally clean, efficient power that is cost effective to  
          ratepayers.  The inclusion of demand side reduction as well as  
          prioritizing it over long term procurement options is somewhat  
          consistent with existing policies on decreasing energy  
          consumption by consumers through incentives, rebates and  
          education.  The committee may want to note  that this bills focus  
          on highlighting additional environmental/renewable language  
          seems to start moving the definition of obligation to serve away  
          from ratepayers to other broader social issues.

           Obligation to serve:   Traditionally, obligation to serve  
          requirements originated from common law doctrine in England.  In  
          the United States the concept of an obligation to serve for  
          entities other than common carriers began to emerge after the  
          United States Supreme Court spoke in Munn v. Illinois in 1876,  
          which stated that government can regulate property that becomes  
          "clothed with a public interest" and when used in a manner to  
          make it of public consequence, and affects the community at  
          large.  This bill adds renewable generation resources,  
          transmission and distribution resources to the existing  
          definition for an IOUs obligation to serve definition.








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           Cost recovery and rate of return:   This bill says an IOU, as a  
          condition of meeting its obligation to serve, has a reasonable  
          opportunity to fully recover from all customers, reasonable  
          costs to operate and maintain those resources, reasonable  
          compensation for employees, a return of and a reasonable return  
          on prudent investments in utility owned generation,  
          transmission, and distribution resources.   The concern  is  
          whether this definition is sufficient enough to enable all cost  
          recovery for an IOU as it relates to utility undercollections,  
          stranded costs, employee transition costs, and Department of  
          Water Resources (DWR) power costs.  Furthermore, this bill  
          deletes the calculation mechanism and the language specifying  
          that cost recovery can be collected in rates from existing law.   
          Does this deletion pose any problems for PUC in determining cost  
          recovery for an IOU?

           Direct Access (DA):   This bill grandfathers in direct access  
          customers as of April 1, 2003.  This bill is silent on what  
          types of "exit fees" will be conferred on certain classes of DA  
          customers that received bundled utility service during the  
          period of time that DWR was procuring power for IOUs.   The  
          committee recommendation  is to include all PUC decisions on  
          direct access cost responsibility surcharges for DA customers  
          who received bundled service in the past.

           Generation/Procurement:   This bills' main focus is to put to bed  
          the idea of a deregulated energy marketplace and replace it with  
          a more stable, but historically more costly and inefficient,  
          energy policy that relies on IOU generation under a consistent  
          rate of return.   The committee may want to note  that, under this  
          bill, there is no requirement to change the current ratios for  
          IOUs on their reliance on retained generation, long term  
          contracts and spot market purchases.  Energy procurement ratios  
          for IOUs shifted dramatically after the passage of AB 1890 and  
          PUC decisions, placing less of a priority on retained generation  
          and more of a priority on purchasing contracts through PX.  It  
          is important to note, that under a strict rate of return  
          regulatory environment IOUs have made investments in costly  
          nuclear power plants, which the ratepayers have paid for as  
          stranded costs in CTC.  Under this bill there is no clear  
          direction for PUC in approving procurement ratio's for IOUs as  
          it relates to placing more of a priority on retained generation  
          (including certain types like renewable generation), long term  








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          contracts and/or spot market purchases.

                                        HISTORY
           
           How did the deregulation effort commence:   Deregulation of the  
          electricity industry in the United States began in 1978 when  
          Congress passed the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act,  
          which opened wholesale power markets to nonutility producers of  
          electricity.  Even greater competition in the bulk power market  
          was created when Congress passed the Energy Policy Act of 1992,  
          which was supervised by FERC.

          In 1996, FERC proceeded to implement the objective of the Energy  
          Policy Act with Orders 888 and 889.  Order 888 allowed newly  
          deregulated utilities to recover Stranded Costs-costs that had  
          been prudently incurred by utilities under the previously  
          regulated regime to serve their customers but cannot be  
          recovered if the consumers choose other electricity suppliers.   
          This bill removed impediments to competition in the wholesale  
          power market with the intention to bring more efficient, lower  
          cost power to the electricity consumers.  Order 889 established  
          an Open Access Same-Time Information System (OASIS), which  
          required utilities to provide both customers and potential  
          customers with information, electronically, about available  
          transmission capacity, prices, and other information that  
          enabled them to obtain open access non-discriminatory  
          transmission service.  These orders facilitated states'  
          restructuring of the electric power industry, which enabled  
          customers to have direct access to retail power generation.

           What was the shape of the electricity market in California prior  
          to restructuring  :  Prior to restructuring, the electricity  
          sector was highly regulated, vertically integrated and  
          monopolistic.  Large vertically integrated investor owned  
          utilities supplied generation, transmission and distribution  
          services.  Regulation was provided by both state and local  
          boards, which set reliability standards and service conditions,  
          along with a specified rate for return for utilities.  Rates for  
          electricity services were consequently highly regulated.  The  
          state's transmission system was largely owned and operated by  
          IOUa.  Local distribution lines were operated by the existing  
          electric utilities.  Power customers were restricted to buying  
          power from a single source--their local utility company.   
          Service was dependable, but relative to other regions, prices  








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          were rather expensive, with rates higher than the US average.   
          For example, in 1996 residential consumers paid 36 percent more  
          than the average US residential consumer, and industrial users  
          paid 52 percent more than the average.

          Utilities and their regulators made virtually all decisions  
          about how the electricity system was structured, operated and  
          paid for, including how many power plants were built, who may  
          build them, which technologies to use and how much consumers  
          must pay for them.

           How did deregulation start in California:  Electricity  
          deregulation began in California when the California State  
          Legislature passed AB 1890 on September 23, 1996.  AB 1890  
          received broad support from customers, utilities, labor and  
          environmentalists, as these stakeholders were extensively  
          involved in the deregulation process.  The implementation of the  
          law was left primarily to PUC.  The objective of competition was  
          to provide cheaper, more efficient, and better served power to  
          retail and commercial consumers.

           Wholesale Market:   AB 1890 set the framework for a new means of  
          electricity exchange to be constructed through the creation of  
          PX and an ISO (both non-profit and subject to FERC  
          jurisdiction).  Prices in the wholesale market were set  
          according to market rules developed by ISO and PX, both of which  
          were launched in March 1998.

          The law required that the state's three dominant IOUs, Southern  
          California Edison (SCE), Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) and San  
          Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) divest at least 50 percent of their  
          generation portfolios.  Regulators and legislators encouraged  
          the utilities to sell all of those plants.  The utilities were  
          required to sell electricity generated by any remaining  
          generation plants into the state wholesale market, PX, and  
          purchase all of their electricity requirements for its customers  
          from PX, which by this time was nothing more than a spot market.  
           In addition, utilities were prevented from negotiating  
          long-term supply contracts.
          
           Transmission and Distribution  :  ISO was given the mandate to  
          operate the high-voltage transmission lines owned by the three  
          utilities, accounting for 75 percent of the California grid.   
          The three utilities still owned the transmission lines, in  
                     







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          accordance with FERC Order 888.  Distribution facilities  
          continued to be operated by the three utilities and regulated by  
          PUC.
          
           Retail Market  :  For retail sales, AB 1890 provided customer  
          choice by allowing more than 70 percent of California's  
          electricity customers to change providers.  By the time the  
          retail market was opened to competition in 1998, 250 power  
          marketing companies had signed up to sell electricity directly  
          to California consumers.

          A transition period to March 31, 2002 was established to allow  
          utilities to recover Stranded Costs; during which time retail  
          rates would be frozen (unless the Stranded Costs were recovered  
          in advance, which would enable retail prices to be freed).  In  
          addition, retail customers received a 10 percent rate reduction  
          during this period of transition.  Where rates were capped, the  
          consumer did not see the effect of higher power acquisition  
          prices - instead the provider absorbed the higher costs (i.e.,  
          PG&E, SCE).  Where rates were not capped, the consumer paid the  
          higher costs (i.e., SDG&E).
          
           What were the goals of deregulation of the electricity market  :   
          The overall goal of deregulation was an increase in the economic  
          efficiency of the electricity market, which in turn would make  
          the state better off and provide consumers with cheaper, more  
          efficient, and better-served power.  This increase in economic  
          efficiency was intended to lead to:

            (a)    Lower utility rates;

            (b)    Choice of electricity providers;

            (c)    Ability to demand specific services;

            (d)    Efficient, cost based pricing (as opposed to a single  
                 bundled rate);

            (e)    Development of new technologies (such as wider use of  
                 renewable energy sources);

            (f)    Development of new kinds of services and products;

            (g)    Reduction of PUC's regulatory burden concerning new  








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                 power plants;

           What failed in the deregulated California market:   

          A variety of factors are believed to have contributed to the  
          energy crisis in California.

           Lack of Investment:

           There has been little investment in the sector and many new  
          investments have been delayed due to uncertainties with the new  
          market, regulatory situation and environmental concerns.   
          Investment in new power generation capacity has not kept pace  
          with the increasing demand for electricity, as no new generation  
          capacity has been constructed in the state for over a decade.   
          During the period from 1990 through 1999, overall demand in the  
          state increased by 11.3 percent, while electric generating  
          capacity decreased by 1.7 percent during the same period.  In  
          addition, there has also been a limited amount of investment in  
          transmission and gas pipeline transmission, which has led to  
          constraints on the transmission network.  Path 15, the high  
          voltage transmission line connecting southern California to  
          northern California, has become congested at times, reducing the  
          flow of surplus electricity capacity in southern California to  
          meet shortages in northern California.

           Market Weaknesses  :

          Shortcomings of the wholesale electric market rules established  
          under the state's restructuring plan contributed to the increase  
          in wholesale prices.  Long term contracts are essential to risk  
          management.  Because electricity cannot be stored, and  
          consequently generated/transmitted/consumed instantaneously, it  
          is the most volatile commodity on the market.  Gas, which fuels  
          much of the power generators, is the second most volatile  
          commodity traded.  Futures markets allow companies to lock in at  
          long term, stable priced, and hedge against the price volatility  
          that California saw in the first months of deregulation.   
          Because PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E were required to buy all of their  
          power through PX, they could not enter into forward long-term  
          contracts for energy.  When spot market wholesale prices  
          increased because of power shortages and increasing generation  
          costs, the utilities had no option but to purchase the  
          high-priced power.  Utilities paid high wholesale prices for  








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          their power, but were unable to recover their costs because  
          retail electricity prices were frozen.  Moreover, since retail  
          consumer prices were capped, consumers had little incentive to  
          reduce demand as prices escalated or to use electricity during  
          cheaper times, such as in the evening.  This situation resulted  
          in the utilities accumulating enormous debts.  Exacerbating the  
          power shortages, many independent power generators were  
          reluctant to sell power to financially strapped PG&E and SCE due  
          to the uncertainty of receiving payment for the power sold.

           Assorted Tribulations:  

          Beginning in May 2000 natural gas prices reached unprecedented  
          levels--as much as 20 times higher than expected by December.   
          California also experienced a reduction in supply of electricity  
          from other states.  California relies on about 7 to 11 gigawatts  
          of out-of-state generation capability, of which a significant  
          portion is produced by hydroelectric power in the northwestern  
          United States.  Reduced hydroelectric power generation caused by  
          unusually low water levels in the northwest resulted in a  
          reduction of imports to northern California.  In addition, the  
          price of pollution permits required covering emissions from  
          power plants in the Los Angeles area increased by a factor of  
          nearly ten over the summer of 2000.  Consequently, approximately  
          10 gigawatts of generation capability were out of operation  
          during times of some of the highest demand in 2000.  Meanwhile,  
          average demand for electricity increased significantly  
          throughout the Western US in the summer of 2000 due to  
          abnormally hot weather.  The combination of tight supply and  
          inelastic demand led many to argue that opportunities were  
          created for suppliers to exercise market power by withholding  
          supply, which drove prices even higher.

           What was the rationale behind banning long-term forward  
          contracting in wholesale markets:   
          AB 1890's exclusion of contracts and hedging options in its  
          market design was believed to be the only way that an  
          effectively functioning wholesale market could be assured.  When  
          AB 1890 was formulated, it contained many provisions that were  
          designed to benefit or protect each of the many stakeholders  
          (residential consumers, utilities, generating companies,  
          industrial consumers).  Since California's rates were higher  
          than the national average, there was some concern that if long  
          term contracts were put into place, high prices would be locked  








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          in.  Moreover, requiring the utilities to purchase power through  
          PX at the market clearing prices would limit their ability to  
          exercise market power.  It addition, smaller customers would be  
          protected from "cream-skimming": the fear that generators would  
          enter into long-term contracts with large customers first who  
          could use their purchasing power to lock in supplies at  
          favorable rates, at the expense of the smaller customers.   
          Additionally, many utilities may have been discouraged with  
          long-term contracts, based on their past experience in  
          California.  California regulators had forced utilities in both  
          gas and electric forward contracts to absorb any losses stemming  
          from the contract prices exceeding wholesale market prices while  
          not permitting them to reap the benefits when contractual prices  
          were lower.

          For these reasons virtually all energy for retail sale in the  
          state since deregulation has been purchased and sold in the spot  
          market, ignoring the benefits of hedging through forward  
          purchases.

           How did utilities hedge themselves from spot market risk, or why  
          didn't they:   It appears that the utilities made significant  
          miscalculations of risk, especially concerning how high the  
          price of power could rise and how exposed they would be.   
          Because of this exposure, high wholesale power prices, and the  
          imposition of retail price caps restricting recovery of these  
          costs, California's three major utilities are experiencing  
          severe financial problems.  The worst case is PG&E, which on  
          April 6, 2001 filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the US  
          Bankruptcy Code.  PG&E estimates that since June 2000 they have  
          spent $9 billion for wholesale power with no reimbursement for  
          those expenditures (referred to as unrecovered power costs).   
          SCE is in a similar situation to PG&E with respect to power  
          purchase costs.  In November 2000, SCE estimated their  
          unrecovered power purchase costs at $2.6 billion.  SDG&E  
          estimates their unrecovered power costs are $447 million.

           What were the forecasts for electricity markets?  Were the  
          utilities aware of the impending crisis, and if so, when  :   
          According to the California Energy Commission (CEC), the  
          increase in demand that California has experienced in recent  
          years had been anticipated and forecasted as early as 1988, and  
          the main source of the energy crisis was that power plants were  
          not being built in the 1990s to keep pace with the forecasted  








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          demand.

          The following table represents CEC's 1988 Electricity Report on  
          actual peak electricity demand and forecasted electricity  
          demand.

            ------------------------------------------------------------- 
           |Year    |Actual Electricity Peak     |Electricity Report     |
           |        |Demand                      |Forecast               |
           |        |(megawatts)                 |(megawatts)            |
           |--------+----------------------------+-----------------------|
           |1995    |47,813                      |50,561                 |
           |--------+----------------------------+-----------------------|
           |1996    |50,189                      |51,683                 |
           |--------+----------------------------+-----------------------|
           |1997    |52,195                      |52,757                 |
           |--------+----------------------------+-----------------------|
           |1998    |45,658                      |53,914                 |
           |--------+----------------------------+-----------------------|
           |1999    |53,335                      |55,033                 |
           |--------+----------------------------+-----------------------|
           |2000    |53,257                      |56,673                 |
            ------------------------------------------------------------- 

          CEC determines forecasts through the use of average weather  
          (once-in-two-year temperature levels).  Yet, California's  
          electricity system is quite sensitive to temperature, with high  
          temperatures producing high electricity loads.  Under extreme  
          conditions demand can increase by roughly 4,000 megawatts above  
          what would be expected under normal weather conditions.  CEC  
          began including sensitivity analysis for temperature extremes in  
          their forecasts in 1998.

           Where did the money the utilities received from selling  
          generators go  :  Under PUC deregulation rules, the utilities were  
          to use profits from the sale of their generating plants to  
          retire debt and reduce equity associated with building the  
          plants and pay off state-mandated long-term contracts.  PUC  
          allowed the utilities to recover only the book value on the  
          sales of their generating plants.  The utilities were only  
          required to sell half of their generating capacity, but many  
          utilities sold off all of their capacity, often at three times  
          the book value of the plants.









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           What are the details of the bond issue Governor Davis is  
          negotiating?  Will the terms affect investment in power  
          generation in the state  :  The $13.4 billion bond issue-the  
          biggest municipal bond issue in US history-is intended to  
          replenish the state general fund for $7 billion DWR has already  
          spent buying electricity on behalf of financially troubled  
          utilities to limit blackouts.  The bond issue is expected to  
          generate immediate cash to bridge that gap until long-term power  
          contracts kick in and planned new power plants come into  
          operation, expanding supplies and lowering prices.  The bonds,  
          being sold by DWR, will entail higher retail rates, as they will  
          be backed by revenue from electric -utility bills DWR levies on  
          consumers and businesses, rather than by the full faith and  
          credit of the state.

          Since late spring 2001, however, wholesale electric prices have  
          declined sharply due to favorable weather and as existing  
          generators have come back on line after completion of scheduled  
          maintenance.  This, along with conservation measures, have  
          reduced the state's cost of purchasing power and led to a  
          surplus of power in July 2001, during which the state has sold  
          extra power back in to the market.  Currently the state is  
          negotiating with energy suppliers to reopen energy contracts  
          made during the energy crises in order to get a better deal and  
          minimize power purchases that the state is locked in to but  
          doesn't use.

           What actions have been taken to mitigate future price spikes and  
          black outs:   Several actions have recently been taken to  
          alleviate California's electricity market problems:

          In March 2001 PUC agreed to raise retail electricity prices to  
          customers of PG&E and SCE to pay for energy purchases made on  
          their behalf.  Overall retail rates will increase an average of  
          19 percent, but low-income customers, medical baseline  
          customers, and residential customers using power below 130  
          percent of baseline usage amounts will not have a rate increase.

          In April of 2001 FERC announced a plan to bring more stability,  
          better control, and price relief to California's energy market.   
          The plan gives ISO more control of power plant outages,  
          establishes price mitigation measures based on market  
          principals, and requires new reporting obligations that will  
          allow FERC to better monitor the energy market in California.   








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          In addition, FERC streamlined regulatory procedures for  
          wholesale power sales and for certification of natural gas  
          projects.  It also urged all hydroelectric licensees to assess  
          the potential for increased generation capacity at their  
          respective facilities.

          Governor Davis signed SB X1 6 (Burton), Chapter 10, First  
          Extraordinary Session, Statutes of 2001, on May 16, 2001  
          creating the California Consumer Power and Conservation  
          Financing Authority (the Authority).  The Authority will have  
          broad powers to construct, own and operate electric power  
          facilities, and finance energy conservation projects.  In  
          addition, on May 22, 2001 Governor Davis signed SB X1 28 (Sher),  
          Chapter 12, First Extraordinary Session, Statutes of 2001, which  
          is designed to shorten the times for reviewing an application  
          for a new power plant and upgrading an existing power plant.   
          The law also allows new owners to pay emission mitigation fees  
          in lieu of obtaining actual emission offsets when the owner can  
          show that emission offsets are not available.

          On May 28, 2001, the US Department of Energy Secretary Abraham  
          ordered the Western Area Power Administration, a 15 state  
          power-marketing arm of the Department, to complete planning and  
          to seek outside financing for increasing California's  
          transmission capacity.  This action aims at reducing power  
          transmission bottlenecks on Path 15, the high-voltage power line  
          connecting northern and southern California.  PUC in May of this  
          year approved, in a 3-2 vote, PG&E's ability to participate in  
          the Federal plan to expand Path 15.

          ISO established a warning system in the spring of 2001 that  
          issues 24-hour warnings of where and when power blackouts can be  
          expected and has established several programs in order to reduce  
          demand.  ISO and the utilities have established incentives for  
          customers to reduce consumption during peak conditions and  
          programs in which customer volunteer to reduce their energy  
          demand during critical periods.  For example, the Optional  
          Binding Mandatory Curtailment Program allows customers who  
          commit to reduce their demand by a specified percentage every  
          time ISO issues a firm load curtailment to be exempt from  
          curtailment of their entire firm load.

           How is this affecting the US economy and deregulation efforts in  
          other states  :  California's experience with electricity  








                                                                  SB 888
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          deregulation could have repercussions for many states that are  
          seeking to achieve electricity reform.  About 24 US states have  
          passed electricity sector reform legislation, yet, only about  
          half of these states have proceeded very far with the  
          restructuring of their electricity industries.  It is expected  
          that many states will delay further reform initiatives until  
          they are confident that reforms will not lead to significant  
          price increases or reliability problems.  For instance, New  
          Mexico recently postponed its decision to begin unbundling its  
          electricity operations due to the problems that California has  
          faced.  Other states, such as Arkansas, have extended the  
          timeframe for deregulation in order for markets to fully  
          develop, while Texas, which is currently in the process of  
          implementing deregulation, has repeatedly delayed implementation  
          in an attempt to catch issues before the state is fully  
          deregulated.

           Previous legislation enacted during and after the energy crisis:
           
           AB X1 5 (Keeley), Chapter 1, Statutes of 2001-2002, and SB 47  
            (Bowen), Chapter 766, Statutes of 2001, provided for  
            gubernatorial appointment and Senate confirmation of ISO  
            board.

           AB X1 6 (Dutra), Chapter 2, Statutes of 2001-2002, put an end  
            to market valuation and divestiture of IOU power plants.

           AB 57 (Wright), Chapter 835, Statutes of 2002, established a  
            PUC-regulated procurement planning and cost recovery process  
            for IOUs.

           SB X1 6 (Burton), Chapter 10, Statutes of 2001-2002,  
            established the Power Authority to facilitate public  
            investment in cost-based electricity resources.

           SB X2 39 (Burton), Chapter 19, Statutes of 2001-2002,  
            authorized PUC and ISO to establish inspection and maintenance  
            standards for merchant power plants to ensure their  
            availability.

           SB 1078 (Sher), Chapter 516, Statutes of 2002, required IOUs  
            to increase procurement of renewable resources subject to a  
            process overseen by PUC.









                                                                  SB 888
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           SB 1389 (Bowen), Chapter 568, Statutes of 2002, required CEC  
            to prepare an Integrated Energy Policy Report every two years  
            based on its assessment of trends in energy markets, including  
            electricity.

           Related legislation:
           
          AB 428 (Richman) - This bill would establish a core/noncore  
          retail structure for electricity.  This bill passed the Assembly  
          Committee on Utilities and Commerce on April 30th of this year  
          and will be heard in Senate Energy, Utilities and Communication  
          Committee on July 8th.

          AB 816 (Reyes) - This bill would reinstate direct access under  
          specified conditions and includes intent language regarding  
          municipal departing load.  This bill passed the Assembly  
          Committee on Utilities and Commerce on April 7th of this year  
          and will be heard in Senate Energy, Utilities and Communication  
          Committee on July 8th.

           REGISTERED SUPPORT / OPPOSITION  :

           Support 
           
          California Teamsters Public Affairs Council
          California Labor Federation
          Consumer Federation of California

           Opposition 
           
          AES Pacific, Inc.
          Alliance for Retail Energy Markets
          Alliance for Retail Marketing
          Automated Power Exchange
          Bay Area Economic Forum
          Boeing Company, Inc.
          BP
          BP Energy
          BP, La Palma
          Burney Forest Products
          California Biomass Energy Alliance
          California Business Properties Association
          California Business Roundtable
          California Chamber of Commerce 








                                                                  SB 888
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          Californians For Energy Stability
          California Manufacturers and Technology Association
          California Steel
          California Wind Energy Association
          California Black Chamber of Commerce
          California CoGeneration Council
          Calpine Corp.
          CalWind
          Carpinteria Valley Chamber of Commerce
          California Farm Bureau Federation
          Callaway Golf
          Caithness Energy
          CH2M Hill
          City of Lindsay
          Civil Justice Association of California
          Clean Power Campaign (unless amended)
          Concordia Resources
          Constellation NewEnergy
          Consumers Coalition of California
          Consulting Engineers and Land Surveyors of California
          Consumers Coalition of California
          Dollar Tree Stores
          Economic Council of Pass Area Communities
          EMS
          Energy Consulting
          Enpower Corp.
          Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance
          GWF Energy, LLC
          Hall & Company
          Hewlett Packard Company
          Honeywell International
          Hyde, Miller, Owen & Trost
          Inland Empire Manufacturers Council
          IBM
          Independent Energy Producers Association
          Jazz Semiconductors, Inc.
          Kings County Economic Development Corp
          Los Angeles Unified School District (unless amended)
          Marriott Hotels
          MJPawlicki Advocacy
          National Energy Marketers Association
          Northrop Grumman
          NRG Energy, Inc.
          Ojai Valley Chamber of Commerce and Visitors Center








                                                                  SB 888
                                                                  Page  21


          Palmdale Chamber of Commerce
          PG&E
          Porterville Chamber of Commerce
          PPG
          Proctor and Gamble
          Raytheon Company
          RealEnergy
          Ridgecrest Chamber of Commerce
          Saint Gobain Containers
          San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce
          School Project for Utility Rate Reduction
                                                            Simpson Timber Company
          Smurfit Stone Container Corp.
          Strategic Energy
          Surveyors of California
          TAMCO Steel
          Trend Offset Printing
          TRW, Inc.
          USSPOSCO
          Visalia Chamber of Commerce
          Western Power Trading Forum
          Wheelabator
          Wine Institute
          YMCA Corona-Norco
          3 individuals


           Analysis Prepared by  :    Daniel Kim / U. & C. / (916) 319-2083